The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a unique contest. For decades, Democrats have assumed that higher turnout favours their candidates, but this may no longer be the case for President Joe Biden. Recent polls show Biden performing well among consistent voters, while his opponent, Donald Trump, appeals to irregular voters, particularly younger Black and Latino men. This shift poses challenges for both parties. Democrats must rethink their strategies to mobilise non-traditional voters, while Republicans need to build an organisation to connect with irregular voters, especially in minority communities.
Polls indicate that Trump leads among infrequent voters, including those who didn’t vote in 2020 or 2022. This group tends to be less engaged with politics and more focused on economic issues. Trump’s appeal to this demographic could benefit him in the election. However, experts caution that it’s too early to predict whether this trend will persist until Election Day.
The election’s outcome depends on which voters participate. If turnout is high, Trump may benefit more than Biden. However, if turnout shrinks, the key question is which voters will fall away and whether new voters will enter the electorate to replace them. Democrats hope to mobilise irregular voters who are open to Trump, while Republicans aim to organise and turn out irregular Black and Latino voters who show receptivity to Trump.
Ultimately, the election’s volatility and unique dynamics make it challenging to predict the outcome. Both parties must adapt their strategies to reach and mobilise their target voters.
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