NOAA’s 2024 hurricane season forecast predicts 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. Learn about the key factors contributing to this record-breaking forecast and how to prepare.
The Highest Ever Pre-Season Annual Forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA has released its 2024 forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1 ¹. This year’s forecast is the highest ever pre-season annual forecast, with predictions of 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
Key Factors Contributing to the High Prediction
Two key factors are contributing to the high prediction for the season:
- El Niño and La Niña: The Pacific Ocean climate pattern known as El Niño, which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation, has weakened. NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Niña, a cooling of surface water in the Pacific that tends to boost hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
- Record-High Surface Water Temperatures: Much of the Atlantic may fuel exceptionally strong hurricanes with heavier rainfall due to record-high surface water temperatures.
Risks Associated with Rising Ocean Temperatures and Sea Levels
Scientists have linked rising ocean temperatures to climate change and warned of an increased risk for higher-intensity storms that can affect both inland and coastal communities. In addition, rising sea levels, also linked to climate change, make shoreline areas more vulnerable to storm surges.
Preparedness is Key
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, a division of NOAA, stressed the importance of preparedness and said the forecast is reason to be “concerned, of course, but not alarmed”. Graham also noted that the biggest hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S. over the last 100 years came with only a couple of days’ warning, leaving limited time for people to prepare.
NOAA’s Improvements to Forecast Communications
NOAA said it will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season, including ¹:
- Expanding its offering of Spanish-language text products
- Issuing an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic around August 15
- Issuing regular and intermediate public advisories as needed instead of having to wait every six hours
Additionally, the agency is introducing new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting, along with system upgrades for the 2024 season.
Other 2024 Hurricane Season Predictions
Researchers from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project predicted in April an “extremely active” 2024 season, including 23 named storms. Stephanie Abrams, a meteorologist from The Weather Channel, also presented a similar prediction, telling “CBS Mornings” in March that rising air and ocean temperatures globally could set the stage for an “explosive hurricane season.”
Other 2024 Hurricane Season Predictions
Researchers from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project predicted in April an “extremely active” 2024 season, including 23 named storms. Stephanie Abrams, a meteorologist from The Weather Channel, also presented a similar prediction, telling “CBS Mornings” in March that rising air and ocean temperatures globally could set the stage for an “explosive hurricane season.”
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